According to a new survey from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), business confidence in the UK has dropped to its lowest level over two years.
The industry body found that rising tax concerns, persistent cost pressures, and weakening sales expectations weigh heavily on companies. Its business confidence index fell to -3 in the first quarter of 2025, down from 0.2 in the final months of 2024. This marks the weakest reading since late 2022.
ICAEW surveyed 1,000 chartered accountants, over half of whom (56%) cited tax increases as a growing challenge – the highest proportion since the survey began in 2004. The pressure comes after Chancellor Rachel Reeves raised employer National Insurance contributions as part of a £40 billion tax package introduced on 6 April.
Meanwhile, international headwinds are also adding to the strain. US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war is expected to dent UK economic growth, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warning that high US tariffs could push GDP growth close to zero in 2026.
Despite stronger-than-expected growth in February, official figures show a 0.5% economic uptick and business sentiment remains fragile. Surveys suggest job shedding at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, though official labour market data has painted a more resilient picture.
Markets anticipate a cut to interest rates at the Bank of England’s 8 May meeting, even as inflation remains above the 2% target.
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